BGM AFD
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly dry conditions will prevail over the next 3-4 hours as
showers are expected to move back in from the west after 10Z.
However, ceilings are expected to remain MVFR/fuel-alt during
this time. Despite a downsloping SE flow at AVP, ceilings have
been gradually falling, and there this the potential for IFR
cigs from prior to daybreak through the morning hours before
winds become more south-southwesterly, but confidence is low, so
this will continue to be monitored.
As showers move in, the rain can be heavy at times to lead to
IFR visby at most terminals for a time. There is also the
potential for thunder as well. Plenty of lightning is currently
over the eastern Great Lakes, but there is uncertainty if they
will survive moving into our area due to a lack of instability,
so thunder was not included in this TAF set.
South-southwesterly LLWS will be in place at all terminals which
is expected to ease by 15-16Z.
Outlook...
Thursday night...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday through Monday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restriction.
Tuesday into Wednesday...Restrictions from snow showers possible
(Medium Confidence).