BGM AFD

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
650 AM Update

Widespread MVFR CIGS have now overspread the area. IFR CIGs are
developing at BGM and at times AVP this morning. There will
also be some scattered rain showers around at times, which may
occasionally bring MVFR vsbys to some of the taf sites. SYR
looks to stay mainly VFR until this afternoon due to strong
downsloping and drying out of the lower atmosphere. Fuel
alternate cigs are likely at ELM and ITH, continuing through
the morning hours. A period of steady rain moves west to east
across the area between 18-24z today; this will bring widespread
fuel alternate cigs and 3-5SM vsbys. Then, after the steady
rain ends conditions should improve back to low end VFR for most
locations after 07/00z with just some isolated snow showers or
flurries around at the CNY terminals. A lake effect snow band
will be near, but north of SYR and RME through 07/06z. The snow
band may impact RME toward 9-12z Tuesday morning; bringing
restrictions.

A strengthening low level jet increases the Low Level Wind
Shear (LLWS) across all of CNY and NEPA this morning. 2k ft
winds are around 40-50 kts from the south shift to SSW. LLWS
continues until the front moves through this afternoon.

Surface winds are mainly south this morning between 10-20 kts.
Winds then shift southwest this afternoon and west by evening
at 15-20kt gusting 25-30 kts at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Lake effect snow showers and resultant intermittent
restrictions; mainly KSYR-KRME in the morning.

Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...Passing system with
snow showers and associated restrictions possible.

Thursday...Dry with mainly VFR conditions.

Thursday NIght & Friday...Restrictions possible with next
disturbance bringing rain and snow showers to the region.

Nearby AWOS/ASOS